by Billy Donovan
July 8, 2007
The All-Star Game is just two days away and yet another baseball season begins a mad rush to the finish line.
Five of the six divisions -- with the AL East left out -- have races for first place. Roger Clemens has returned, again. Barry Bonds is now only six swings away from breaking Hank Aaron's all-time homerun record. Alex Rodriguez continues to put eye-popping numbers at the plate while Yankee fans await his decision on whether or not he will stay in New York. Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy have made the Brewers the team to beat in the NL Central. San Diego, and its' deep pitching staff, look like the team to beat in the NL West.
Those stories, and more, have dominated the headlines during the first half. With the second half opening in a few days, here are my annual five predictions for the stretch run along with updates on predicted division standings and season ending awards.
(For those who missed my original predictions, click here.)
Prediction #1: With Curt Schilling getting old fast and with Julian Tavarez and Kason Gabbard holding down the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Red Sox will trade prospects Michael Bowden, Brandan Moss and Jed Lowrie to the White Sox for lefty Mark Buehrle.
Although the Red Sox are running away with the AL East -- both Toronto and New York are 11 games behind them -- they need another starter to go with Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tim Wakefield is too inconsistent and Schilling looks too old to get the job done. Buehrle would be the perfect fit, even if it is just a rental for three months before he becomes a free agent.
Prediction #2: Barry Bonds will break Aaron's record on July 26th in San Francisco against Aaron's Atlanta Braves. Commissioner Bud Selig will make a last minute arrival to witness the record but Aaron will not be there.
The worst kept secret in sports is that Selig and the rest of MLB do not want Bonds to break this record. However, in the "best interests" of the game, Selig will be there to see Bonds hit No. 756.
Prediction #3: Even with Pedro Martinez scheduled to return in August, the Mets will add a pitcher by the trade deadline.
The Mets had the best team in the National League last year but they lost in the NLCS to the Cardinals because they lacked starting pitching. The move may be for a prominant starter (Rich Harden of the A's or Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins) or just an arm to provide some insurance (Jeff Weaver of the Mariners or Aaron Harang of the Reds) but general manager Omar Minaya will not stand pat.
Prediction #4: The Yankees will cut the Red Sox lead in the AL East to five games by September 1st but the Sox will end up winning the division by double-digits and the Yanks will miss the playoffs for the first time since 1994.
I have to admit, Roger Clemens has been pitching very good for the Yankees lately. But how long can that last for a man who has pitched almost 5000 career innings and who will turn 45 on August 4? I say not long. New York will make its' run in August but the Red Sox, built to win the World Series, will leave the Bronx Bombers in their dust in September.
Prediction #5: A-Rod will bash 63 homeruns and will option out of his contract at the end of the year, leaving the Yankees for the Chicago -- where he will lead the CUBS to the 2008 World Series and where he will hit over 800 career homeruns.
New York City is not the place for Rodriguez. He will move to the big market of Chicago and play for the lovable losers, a role that will allow him to be the superstar he craves to be. With A-Rod hitting at Wrigley Field and between Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs will be unstoppable and Rodriguez will easily surpass Bonds' career homerun record.
Division Winners/Playoff Predictions:
AL EAST: Boston Red Sox
AL CENTRAL: Detroit Tigers
AL WEST: Anaheim Angels
AL WILD CARD: Cleveland Indians
NL EAST: New York Mets
NL CENTRAL: Milwaukee Brewers
NL WEST: San Diego Padres
NL WILD CARD: Chicago Cubs
ALDS: Red Sox over Indians; Tigers over Angels
NLDS: Mets over Cubs; Padres over Brewers
ALCS: Red Sox over Tigers
NLCS: Mets over Padres
WORLD SERIES: Red Sox over Mets
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